I have worked on 2 different AI models to come up with the best value exacta box for the 2025 Kentucky Derby - and added in a bit of my own commentary.

My best advice on Saturday:

1. Avoid the Mint Julep

2. Don’t wear Seersucker

3. Don’t bet on horse racing

For the degenerates, Woodford Reserve makes the best Mint Julep, and you can keep reading for the racing action…

Gentlemen, if I catch you wearing Vineyard Vines, I WILL post pictures.

The Horses

Journalism (3-1), Sovereignty (5-1), Burnham Square (12-1)

The Wager

Exacta box (3 horses, 6 combinations)

The Commentary

Journalism (3-1): This horse will be the morning-line favorite, trained by Michael McCarthy - undefeated on dirt (4-for-4) with wins in key prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. His No. 8 post is ideal, avoiding traffic issues, and his tactical speed makes him a strong candidate for a win.

Sovereignty (5-1): A fantastic closer trained by Bill Mott, with wins at Churchill Downs and a runner-up in the Florida Derby. His No. 17 post is outside, and not ideal, but it’s manageable for a horse with his closing style. He’s well known for his stamina and dirt prowess.

Burnham Square (12-1): A value pick with double-digit odds, trained by Ian Wilkes. He won the Holy Bull and Blue Grass Stakes, showing he can pass horses late, crucial in a 20-horse field. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., who won last year with Mystik Dan, knows Churchill Downs well and he’s a ruthless expert on the rail - his inside-passing ability is a differentiator. If this horse can get inside from the No. 8 post (and hurt the favorite with pace), he could easily be there at the end.

(Option) - add in Luxor Cafe (15-1) for a 4-way box: A Japanese horse with a stellar pedigree (sired by American Pharoah!), he’s won key prep races like the Fukuryu Stakes. Despite the international transition, he is a high-upside longshot offering a nice hedge + nice value.

Bet Online

You can wager at www.twinspires.com (no affiliate).

You know where to find me,

Todd